Posted by asicsning
So, in the second quarter economic data before and after, to raise interest rates and tax reduction would have become a consensus. If the government's macroeconomic regulation and control means and aim fundamentally changed, so the situation of the low interest rate policy to continue again is impossible. If the change of the low interest rate policy, for a real estate investor a straw will be the camel's back. Because, for a real estate investor, the interest rate adjustment is its investment cost and benefit analysis of lethal weapon. Because not only is the interest rate affect the real estate market is not a one-off, sudden, but gradually, permeability, hysteresis, and is the interest rate's influence on real estate investment market is not how the results of the present, but how to change the real estate investment market expectations. If the central bank to raise interest rates to become a routine means, so the real estate market investors should not only observe raising interest rates expected changes in the real estate market behavior, but also have to focus on the central bank of the real estate market behavior expectations reflect what possible policy. And it is this chain reflect market expectations, who cannot be underestimated the effect on the real estate market? Look at the real estate market in the United States, in the boom after eight years, the interest of the government policy, not only the national real estate market price decline, and some problems in the real estate market are mostly above the water. Also, raising interest rates investors direct cost impact on the real estate market is huge. You principal, for example, one yuan, interest rate was 5%, compound interest, 30 years later a dollar interest the final value of coefficient of 4.322; Interest rate is 8%, 30 years later a dollar interest the final value of coefficient of 10.062; An interest rate of 10%, 30 years later a dollar interest the final value of coefficient of 17.449. That is to say, when calculating compound interest, when twice as interest rates rise from 5% to 10%, its final value coefficient of interest for more than four times. The simplest example of this is, if you buy a house total price is 1.2 million yuan, the first payment of 200000 yuan, 1 million yuan loan, paid in 30 years, loan interest rate is 10%, your monthly mortgage loans to 8775.70 yuan, 30 years later with gains you always pay 3.32 million yuan, including 2.32 million yuan in interest payments. It can be said that in the case of compound interest, interest rates rise will impact on the cost of real estate buyers is very big. If the real estate market investors or consumers take into account the interest risk, or to calculate the cost of the interest rate risk, if the interest into the rising channel, and the real estate market investment behavior and consumer behavior will change. In this case, will not only change the real estate supply and demand, interest and the effect on the real estate market nature shows. It is this sense, the government to change the current status of negative interest rates will have to continually make interest rates to rise, and once a rise in interest or interest in a rising channel, its impact on the real estate market is going to be huge. Prof. Chen pointed out recently, and for the start of the industrial revolution in England, 150 years of financial revolution also is the greatest invention in human history, many modern developed countries are benefiting from the more than 150 years of financial revolution and the rapid development and flourish, especially on agriculture in 1800 the United States, with the industrial revolution and urbanization power surge in the American economy financialization of degree. Capitalization story of the U.S. economy, not only makes us in a very short period of time covered industrial revolution, but also create conditions for comprehensive modernization and prosperity of American society. For example, in 1800, the American currency circulation was $28 million, but by 1900, the financial assets will rise to $64 billion, accounting for 320% of GDP at the time, but in 2006, the U.S. financial assets total value of $129 trillion, is 970% of GDP. A dollar of GDP per production nearly $10 financial securities in circulation.
Posted: 10:45 pm, June 16th, 2014 in New York City
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